Gold Price might turn out to be the Election Winner

Whether or not you support President Donald Trump, you need to acknowledge that one of the cornerstones of his style of governance is unpredictability. Trump's behavior and decision-making process may seem unpredictable to some critics, but I think they make some kind of sense when viewed through the lens of game theory. Take, for example, his cold and warm stance on a new law promoting the coronavirus last week.

On Tuesday, Trump unexpectedly tweeted that negotiations with House spokeswoman Nancy Pelosi would be suspended until after the election. "After I win, we will pass a major stimulus bill that will focus on hard-working Americans and small businesses," he said. On the same day, Trump appeared to change his mind - reportedly after seeing the stock market, and airline stocks in particular, react to the news. (I often say that he is the first American president to keep an eye on the stock market and see it as a gauge of his success).

"The House of Representatives and Senate should IMMEDIATELY approve $ 25 billion to support airline payroll support," he tweeted. This behavior, too, may seem irrational to some, but in game theory, unpredictability can be an effective means of leaving the opponent in the dark. In case you are not familiar, "game theory" is the study of how and why people make decisions in order to achieve a certain result. More than one game theorist has predicted Trump's victory in 2016, and I wouldn't be surprised to learn that some are doing the same in the 2020 competition.

Even though Trump is behind Joe Biden in national polls. Meanwhile, PredictIt's data shows that betting odds favor Biden's win, with the range widening since Trump's positive COVID-19 diagnosis. But if you remember, Trump was in a similar underdog position against Hillary Clinton, who ran for election four years ago.