Tin’s Supply Crunch Softened by Global Demand Weakness

Exploring the Delicate Balance of Supply and Demand in the Global Tin Market

Editorial Team (ET)August 17, 2025

The tin market has seen a fascinating year shaped by lower-than-expected demand, which has, in effect, cushioned the metal from the otherwise tense supply issues gripping the industry. This delicate balance between reduced demand and supply pressures has kept tin prices relatively stable, even as inventory levels shifted, fueled by changes in China’s demand and significant supply disruptions from Myanmar. This article takes a deep dive into the current dynamics of the tin market, examining how demand trends, supply limitations, and future recovery expectations have collectively impacted tin’s unique position in 2024.

Introduction: Understanding Tin’s Market Dynamics in 2024

The tin industry, much like the metals market overall, is a complex and interconnected landscape, with prices and supply both influenced by global economic shifts and sector-specific challenges. The International Tin Association (ITA) recently provided new insights on how weakened demand and specific supply pressures have shaped tin’s journey over the past year, with a modest recovery tentatively in sight.

Tin Demand Overview

The demand for tin took an unexpected downturn last year. Industry analysts anticipated a much stronger recovery, but a combination of factors contributed to this shift. These included a slowdown in major tin-consuming sectors, heightened by broad economic uncertainties, and temporary setbacks in the electronics market. Tin’s primary usage remains focused on the electronics sector, particularly in soldering, which constitutes over half of global demand. This demand is deeply connected to the broader consumer electronics market, which has faced both opportunities and challenges as consumers pull back on spending due to higher living costs.

Tin’s Role and Key Uses in Industry

Tin plays a critical role in numerous industrial applications, spanning electronics, chemicals, and alloys. In electronics, it is primarily used in soldering materials that bond electrical connections. Beyond electronics, tin also finds significant use in the chemical industry and in creating copper-based alloys, each of which has faced unique pressures amid ongoing economic shifts.

Demand Fluctuations in 2023

The past year witnessed a significant decline in demand, with refined tin usage contracting by 3.9% year-over-year. This drop was far beyond what the industry anticipated, with total tin usage (both refined and unrefined) declining by an even sharper rate. The electronics sector’s demand for tin dipped slightly, largely due to lower consumer spending on electronics in Western economies affected by the cost-of-living crisis. In other industries, tin usage saw similar challenges. The chemical sector registered a 3.1% decrease, while tinplate demand fell by 7.6%. The hardest hit, however, was the alloy sector, particularly copper alloys, which plummeted by 16.9%.

Recovery Signals for 2024

While 2023 was marked by declines across multiple sectors, a slow but steady recovery is anticipated in the year ahead. This anticipated uptick is largely driven by China’s economic rebound, with demand from the electronics and consumer goods sectors expected to grow. Surveyed companies project a 3.0% increase in demand for tin, buoyed by China’s influence on global tin markets and broader economic stabilization.

Supply Constraints and Tin Shortages

While demand saw a noticeable dip, tin’s supply situation has faced serious constraints. Major supply issues have arisen due to export disruptions from Myanmar, a key tin producer. One of the largest disruptions has been the suspension of the Man Maw mine in Myanmar, which has historically been a crucial source of tin for Chinese smelters. The Man Maw mine accounts for about 7% of the global tin supply, but its operations have been on hold, limiting the availability of raw material for smelters across China. This has resulted in significant shifts in global supply, as Chinese buyers look elsewhere to source tin.

Impact of Myanmar’s Man Maw Mine Suspension on Tin Supply

The Man Maw mine’s suspension is a major development, affecting not only the regional tin market but also the global supply chain. The reduced tin flow from Myanmar has forced Chinese buyers to turn to the international market for refined tin. This change has had wide-reaching effects on the international market, with imports shifting to meet the shortfall from Myanmar.

Supply Adjustments in the Chinese Market

In response to Myanmar’s supply issues, Chinese smelters have made several strategic adjustments. As raw material shortages persist, China has increased imports of refined tin. This shift has turned China from a net exporter of tin into a net importer, impacting international trade flows. September alone saw China importing close to 2,000 tons of refined tin, underscoring its evolving role within the global market.

Stockpiling and Inventory Swells

The broader market trends of weakened demand combined with tight supply have resulted in substantial stockpiling. Registered stocks of tin held by the London Metal Exchange (LME) and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) surged, with LME stocks growing from 10,000 tons at the start of last year to nearly 25,000 tons. Shanghai stocks reached an all-time high, with the ShFE inventory hitting a peak of over 17,800 tons in May. These rising inventories reflect the market’s reaction to weaker-than-expected demand, though recent months have seen some drawdown in Shanghai, hinting at a tightening mainland market.

Consumer Stockpiling Trends

End consumers also maintained steady stock levels, holding approximately 3.8 weeks’ worth of global tin supply throughout 2023. As demand starts to stabilize, surveyed companies expect their stock cover to decrease slightly to around 3.4 weeks by year’s end, reflecting expectations for a modest recovery.

Economic Factors Affecting Tin Demand and Supply

The global tin market operates within a broader economic framework that shapes demand and influences supply. Rising costs of living, particularly in Western economies, have reduced disposable incomes, impacting consumer purchases of electronic goods, one of the main drivers of tin demand. Additionally, a gradual phase-out of lead in circuit-board soldering is expected to positively impact tin demand, especially in regions where environmental regulations continue to evolve. This shift is a positive sign for tin’s future, although the changes are gradual.

Future Outlook for Tin Demand and Supply

Looking forward, the tin market’s outlook remains mixed. A slow recovery is expected, but supply constraints will continue to pose challenges, especially as the Man Maw mine remains offline. China’s construction sector, which uses copper alloys that include tin, remains under pressure, casting a shadow over this segment’s growth. As for the broader tin market, industry experts predict a moderate increase in demand. However, the lingering impact of supply issues and inventory levels will likely lead to periods of heightened volatility.

Potential for Market Volatility

While the current stability is notable, tin may face greater market turbulence as inventory levels adjust and China’s demand patterns evolve. Should China’s demand accelerate and supply issues persist, tin prices could face upward pressure. The prospect of volatility will largely depend on how quickly demand picks up and how effectively the market can manage existing supply constraints. The situation in Myanmar remains a critical factor to watch, as its influence on tin supply will play a defining role in shaping the market’s future.

Conclusion: Tin’s Balancing Act of Demand and Supply

In conclusion, tin’s current market dynamics reflect a complex balance of weakened demand and significant supply issues. Despite the reduced demand in 2023, the tin market managed to avoid extreme volatility due to ample stockpiles. However, as demand, particularly from China, shows signs of rebounding, the tin market may soon face a different set of challenges. The interplay of demand recovery and supply pressures will likely drive tin’s path forward, making the market one to watch in the coming year. With China unable to fully offset the supply loss from Myanmar and the inventory cushion gradually deflating, tin may be in for some significant adjustments, potentially introducing new volatility as the year progresses.

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