McTrouble: Why Trump’s Trade War Might Make Big Macs a McMess
How Trump’s Trade War on Canadian Potash Could Raise Food Prices for Every American
Editorial Team (ET)May 9, 2025
Donald Trump’s love for fast food is well known, but his latest trade policies could make his favorite meal—a Big Mac—far more expensive. With a proposed 25% tariff on Canadian potash, a crucial ingredient in fertilizers, American farmers face skyrocketing costs that will be passed down to consumers. The ripple effect will impact everything from wheat for burger buns to soy and corn for cattle feed, making everyday groceries pricier.
America’s Deep Dependence on Canadian Potash
Potash is a vital mineral used in fertilizers to grow crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat—three of the most important staples in American agriculture. Without it, food production suffers, crop yields decline, and prices rise. Canada is the world’s largest producer of potash, supplying nearly 80% of the U.S. market.
Between 2020 and 2023, nearly 79% of all potash used in the U.S. came from Canada, according to the United States Census Bureau. The alternatives are not promising. Russia, Belarus, and China are the next biggest producers, but relying on these countries is risky due to geopolitical tensions, sanctions, and supply chain disruptions. Without Canadian potash, American farmers have nowhere else to turn.
The Cost of Tariffs: A $100 Per Tonne Hike
Trump’s proposed tariffs would add over $100 per tonne to the price of potash, a devastating blow to U.S. farmers. A University of Illinois study estimated that at a price of $450 per imperial ton, a 25% tariff would push costs well above sustainable levels. Fertilizer prices are already a major burden on the agricultural sector, and this added expense would push many farmers to the breaking point.
Iowa farmer Lance Lillibridge, who operates a 1,300-acre corn farm near Cedar Rapids, says the impact would be immediate and severe. He needs potash to grow corn, which is later processed into feed for cattle, ethanol, paper, and even hard candies. If the price of potash increases, he will have to cut output or pass the cost along to buyers.
Lillibridge, like many other farmers, is already preparing for the worst. In the past, he used around 100 pounds of potash per acre, but faced with the possibility of price hikes, he plans to use it more sparingly this year. Margins in agriculture are razor-thin, and any added expense can mean the difference between breaking even and taking a loss.
A Chain Reaction from Farm to Fork
The effect of these tariffs won’t stop at the farm. Every step of the food supply chain will feel the impact, driving up costs for consumers. The price of wheat will rise, which means higher costs for flour and bread. Since potash is applied to pastures and used to grow corn and soybeans that become cattle feed, the cost of beef will increase as well. This means McDonald's will have to pay more for the ingredients that go into a Big Mac, and those costs will be passed on to customers.
Agricultural economist Gary Schnitkey warns that these cost increases will have a cascading effect throughout the economy. He points out that the 25% tariff would make feed more expensive, which would then drive up beef prices, impacting everything from burgers to steaks.
Farmers and Industry Push Back
The backlash against the tariffs has been immediate. U.S. farm groups, economists, and lawmakers from agricultural states are urging Trump to reconsider. Senator Chuck Grassley from Iowa has been vocal about the dangers of cutting off affordable potash, warning that family farmers in the U.S. rely on Canadian imports to sustain their operations.
The Fertilizer Institute, an industry group representing U.S. fertilizer producers, issued a strong statement against the tariffs, emphasizing that disruptions to the cross-border fertilizer trade would have negative effects on American farmers and the entire food supply chain. Even major potash producers like Nutrien, the world’s largest supplier, have weighed in. CEO Ken Seitz made it clear that these price hikes would ultimately be shouldered by U.S. farmers, not the fertilizer companies.
Canada Strikes Back with Retaliatory Tariffs
Canada is not sitting idly by. In response to Trump’s proposed tariffs, the Trudeau government has announced a 25% tax on American imports, including beverages, cosmetics, and paper products. The move signals that Canada is willing to fight back against U.S. trade restrictions, escalating tensions between the two countries.
Saskatoon-based Nutrien, Canada’s largest potash producer and one of the country’s biggest companies, has already warned that it will pass any additional costs directly to its U.S. customers. Meanwhile, German-owned K+S Potash, which operates in Canada, has stated that it has the flexibility to shift exports to other countries if the U.S. market becomes too expensive due to tariffs.
The Future of U.S. Agriculture at Stake
The consequences of these tariffs extend far beyond the price of a Big Mac. Kayla FitzPatrick, spokesperson for Fertilizer Canada, warned that tariffs on potash imports from Canada would threaten food production for farmers in both countries. She emphasized that these trade barriers would not only harm American farmers but also distort the U.S. market in favor of competitors like Russia and China, undermining the critical trade goals of both nations.
If these tariffs move forward, American farmers will be forced to make difficult decisions. Some may reduce fertilizer use, leading to lower crop yields and higher prices. Others may pass the costs onto consumers, making groceries more expensive for families across the country. Either way, the impact will be felt at every level of the economy.
Despite Trump’s belief that tariffs will strengthen the U.S. economy, history suggests otherwise. Trade wars rarely benefit consumers, and in this case, they could lead to higher food prices, disrupted supply chains, and economic uncertainty. While the former president may enjoy his Big Macs, his own policies may make them too expensive for everyday Americans to afford.
