Is the West Too Late to Fix the Global Tungsten Shortage?
How deliberate foreign monopolies and a lack of Western refining infrastructure forced governments to step in and save the critical minerals market.
Let’s get one thing straight: the global economy did not simply “sleepwalk” into the current tungsten crisis, despite what recent commodities reports might suggest. When BMO Global Commodities Research dropped their latest note warning of a severe global shortage and a staggering fivefold surge in tungsten prices over the past year, they accurately identified the symptoms. Depleted inventories, declining ore grades, and tightening Chinese supply are indeed pushing ammonium paratungstate (APT) prices to eye-watering highs of around $1,775 per tonne. However, chalking this up to mere underinvestment and environmental red tape glosses over the brutal, deliberate geopolitics at play.
The reality of the tungsten crunch is far messier and much more calculated. For decades, the West willingly handed over the keys to its heavy industry and defense supply chains. Digging tungsten out of the ground is only the first hurdle. The actual stranglehold exists in midstream processing and refining. Western nations spent the better part of the last thirty years dismantling their domestic refining infrastructure, meaning that even when non-Chinese mines operate successfully, the raw ore often still has to be shipped back to China to be processed into useable materials like APT and tungsten carbide. You cannot fix a supply chain simply by digging new holes if you have nowhere to bake the cake.
Furthermore, China’s current 75 percent dominance in the tungsten market is not a happy accident of geology. In the 1980s and 90s, Beijing intentionally flooded the global market with cheap tungsten, artificially driving prices so low that almost every major Western operation was forced into bankruptcy. Fast forward to late 2025 and early 2026, and China has effectively weaponized that hard-won monopoly. Following years of trade tensions, Beijing implemented stringent export controls on dual-use tungsten, driving their APT exports down to zero. This was a calculated flex of geopolitical muscle designed to exert leverage over Western technology and defense manufacturing, not just a reaction to declining ore grades.
This brings us to the supposed free-market solution. Analysts love the adage that “the cure for high prices is high prices,” suggesting that private capital will naturally flow in to balance the deficit. Yet, private investors have long memories, and many are terrified of being burned again by sudden Chinese price manipulations. Consequently, the true catalyst for market stabilization is not the free market at all, it is aggressive government intervention.
Recognizing the existential threat to national security, Western governments are stepping in to bypass pure market economics. The United States Department of Defense, utilizing the Defense Production Act, has begun directly injecting millions of dollars into North American mining projects to guarantee supply. A prime example is Fireweed Metals Corp. (TSXV: FWZ), which recently secured massive joint funding from both the US and Canadian governments to advance its Mactung tungsten project in the Yukon. Governments are no longer waiting for the invisible hand to do its job; they are forcefully guiding it.
Across the globe, other monumental shifts are underway that fundamentally alter the supply landscape. In South Korea, Almonty Industries Inc. (TSX: AII) is spearheading a massive revival of the historic Sangdong mine. Expected to reach full capacity soon, this single project is projected to supply over 40 percent of the world’s non-Chinese tungsten. Backed by strategic Western interests and hard floor off-take agreements specifically earmarked for US defense applications, the Sangdong mine represents a direct, physical countermeasure to the current supply deficit.
The tungsten shortage is the chaotic unwinding of a three-decade geopolitical monopoly, not merely an unfortunate trough in the commodities cycle. While higher prices will undoubtedly incentivize new developments, the real rescue mission is being led by governments and strategic developers who recognize that depending on a single, adversarial supplier for a cornerstone of modern defense and industry is a luxury the West can no longer afford.
Sources:
- MINING.COM (BMO Global Commodities Research Note, February 2026)
- Almonty Industries Inc. Corporate Disclosures and Market Data
- Fireweed Metals Corp. Press Releases and Government Funding Announcements