Why Eric Nuttall Believes Canadian Oil is the Ultimate Safe Haven in the 2026 Energy Crisis
As global supply lines fracture and the Strait of Hormuz squeezes the market, Ninepoint Partners’ Eric Nuttall reveals why decades of secure Canadian oil inventory are the ultimate play for 2026.
The global energy landscape is currently sitting on a powder keg, and according to Ninepoint Partners' Eric Nuttall during his recent appearance on BNN Bloomberg, the real shockwaves haven't even hit the market yet. With global oil production down a staggering 11 million barrels per day and liquefied natural gas flows slashed by 20 percent, the math is looking increasingly grim for energy consumers. As the final ships that managed safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz dock at their destinations, the looming reality of severe product shortages, particularly jet fuel and diesel, is about to set in. Yet, while the world braces for the "day after" the Strait eventually reopens, Nuttall is positioning his portfolio for a massive structural shift, heavily favoring the security of Canadian producers.
Nuttall argues that even when the geopolitical dust settles and the Strait inevitably resumes operations, the market will permanently bake an enduring risk premium of at least US$10 into the price of a barrel. Rather than the global oil glut many analysts erroneously predicted just a month ago, inventories are racing toward multi-year lows. This sets a formidable new floor for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude at US$70 to $80 per barrel. The fundamental realities of the sector simply haven't changed: U.S. shale is entering its twilight years, non-OPEC production has peaked, and OPEC's supposed 1.5 million barrels per day of spare capacity is practically meaningless when a US$30,000 drone can neutralize it in an instant.
Armed with this bullish macro outlook, Nuttall's fund is now almost entirely concentrated in Canadian oil stocks. At an average US$80 WTI over the next two years, these companies are generating massive free cash flow yields approaching eight to 16 percent. Trading at multiples well below historical averages, these resilient operators offer potential upsides ranging from 35 to 105 percent. The winning formula involves deep asset duration, fortress-like balance sheets, and serious capital returns. To play this setup, Nuttall has zeroed in on three specific heavyweights.
First on his radar is Strathcona Resources (TSX: SCR), a company boasting what Nuttall calls "mega-asset duration." While U.S. shale producers scramble to replace rapidly depleting inventory, Strathcona is sitting on over half a century of stay-flat oil runway. The company is currently trading at a hyper-compressed 3.2 times its estimated 2027 cash flow at US$80 WTI. By growing its production by more than 50 percent over the next five years, Nuttall believes the stock can easily more than double, pointing to an appropriate seven times target multiple given its massive lifecycle.
Next up is Whitecap Resources (TSX: WCP), which brings well over 25 years of premium, stay-flat inventory across the highly coveted Montney and Duvernay formations. Despite drilling top-decile wells and boasting a stellar management team, the stock has lagged this year, climbing only 28 percent. Nuttall views this underperformance as a glaring market mispricing. With a highly sustainable five percent dividend yield padding the returns, he models a US$25 target price based on a seven times 2027 enterprise value to cash flow multiple, implying a massive 70 percent upside for investors willing to look past near-term volatility.
Finally, Nuttall highlights Ovintiv (TSX: OVV), a company that recently pulled off a masterstroke by swooping in to acquire NuVista during a cyclical low in oil prices. Armed with over a decade of drilling inventory in the Permian Basin and more than 20 years in the Montney, Ovintiv is rapidly shaking off its old reputation as a "hedge fund hotel" to become a formidable, institutionally owned powerhouse. The company is currently returning an aggressive 75 percent of its free cash flow to shareholders and trades at a mere 3.8 times 2027 enterprise value to cash flow. Targeting a six times multiple, Nuttall sees a clear path to a 50 percent upside.
For investors navigating the gravest energy crisis of our lifetimes, the strategy is clear: bypass the geopolitical noise and focus on the companies quietly sitting on decades of highly profitable, secure supply.
Source:
- Eric Nuttall’s Top Picks for March 26, 2026, by BNNBloomberg.ca.