What Happens When Wall Street’s Most Cautious Voice Turns Bullish on Gold?

UBS shatters its own caution as the Swiss banking giant lifts gold’s mid-2026 target to $4,500 and signals a bullish runway that stretches toward $4,900.

Editorial Team (ET)November 21, 2025

If you thought the gold rally was running out of breath after hitting a record near $4,381 last month, think again. UBS, the famously cautious Swiss banking giant, just raised its mid-2026 gold price forecast to $4,500 an ounce – a bold $300 jump from its previous $4,200 target – and dangled an upside scenario of $4,900. For a bank that usually prefers measured language to fireworks, this is the financial equivalent of showing up to a black-tie event in a bright red Ferrari.

Published on November 20, 2025, the new UBS note reads like a love letter to everything that’s been pushing gold higher in 2025: Federal Reserve rate cuts, exploding U.S. fiscal deficits, relentless central-bank buying, and a geopolitical backdrop that makes “uncertain” sound like an understatement. The analysts didn’t just nudge their numbers higher – they essentially declared that the macro stars remain perfectly aligned for the yellow metal well into the next presidential term.

The core argument is refreshingly straightforward. America’s deteriorating fiscal outlook – think trillions in new borrowing under the incoming administration – is turning gold into the ultimate “no-counterparty-risk” asset. When trust in paper promises starts to wobble, central banks and investors alike reach for something that can’t be printed at 3 a.m. by a desperate finance minister. UBS expects emerging-market central banks to keep piling in at the 1,000+ tonne annual pace we’ve seen since 2023, while Western investors finally wake up and flood back into gold ETFs once real yields dip negative again in 2026.

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