Trump's Resilience Sparks Market Surge: Trump's Media, Crypto, and More
Market Turbulence and Strategic Gains Amidst Political Drama: Investors Bet on Trump's Victory

The financial markets were thrown into a frenzy following a dramatic incident that could shape the future of the U.S. presidency. On Monday, an assassination attempt on Donald Trump during a rally in Pennsylvania sent shockwaves through the stock market. This unexpected event has increased the odds of Trump's election victory, as evidenced by the significant movements in various stock sectors, particularly Trump Media, cryptocurrency, and prison stocks.
The Shooting Incident
During a rally in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump was shot in the ear. Despite the severity of the incident, Trump remained resilient, pumping his fist moments after the attack and assuring his supporters that he was fine. His campaign swiftly issued a statement confirming his condition, which added to the market's reaction.
Impact on Betting Markets
Online betting site PredictIt saw a surge in bets favoring Trump's election victory, with the odds rising from 60 cents to 67 cents. This significant jump reflects a growing confidence among investors and bettors that Trump will emerge victorious in the upcoming elections. Joe Biden's odds, on the other hand, dropped to 27 cents, indicating a shift in market sentiment.
Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG)
Trump Media & Technology Group, the parent company of the social media platform Truth Social, saw its shares soar by 33%. With Trump holding a majority stake valued at approximately $3.8 billion as of June 25, this surge is a testament to the market's belief in his potential victory. Retail traders have played a pivotal role in driving TMTG's stock up by 75% this year, banking on a Trump win in the November elections.
Cryptocurrency Market Reaction
The cryptocurrency market also reacted positively, with Bitcoin reaching a two-week high. Stocks of crypto-related companies, such as Coinbase Global, Riot Platforms Inc, and Marathon Digital, saw increases between 5% and 8.5%. Trump's pro-cryptocurrency stance has positioned him as a champion for the crypto market, boosting investor confidence in these stocks.
Bond Market Response
Long-dated U.S. bond yields rose, partially driven by the assumption that Trump's policies could lead to higher inflation and increased debt. This shift in bond yields highlights investor anticipation of the economic changes that a Trump presidency could bring.
Broader Stock Market Impact
The benchmark S&P 500 edged 0.5% higher, nearing another record high. Investors seem unfazed by the potential political upheaval, maintaining their commitment to U.S. equities. Historical data shows that the stock market performed well under both the Trump and Biden administrations, suggesting a level of confidence in the overall market resilience.
Gun and Ammunition Stocks
In the wake of the shooting, gun makers and ammunition stocks such as Smith & Wesson Brands, Sturm Ruger & Company, and Ammo saw significant jumps between 7.5% and 18%. Historically, gun stocks tend to rise after mass shootings due to fears of increased gun control measures, prompting a rush to purchase firearms.
Prison Stocks Response
Prison stocks, including Geo Group and CoreCivic, also saw gains of 10% and 7.7%, respectively. Trump's promise to crack down on illegal immigration is expected to increase demand for detention centers, benefiting these companies.
Tech Stocks Reaction
Tech stocks tied to Trump's campaign, such as Phunware and Rumble, experienced notable gains. Phunware, which was hired by Trump's 2020 campaign to develop a phone app, jumped 8%, while Rumble, a conservative-friendly video-sharing platform, added 8.6%. The tech sector's response underscores the strategic role these companies play in Trump's political strategy.
Clean Energy Stocks Decline
Conversely, clean energy stocks took a hit as Trump's potential policy reversals loomed. Invesco Solar ETF fell 5.6%, and iShares Global Clean Energy ETF dropped 3.7%. Trump's opposition to Biden's climate policies, including tax incentives for clean energy, weighed heavily on these stocks.
U.S.-Listed Chinese Firms Reaction
U.S.-listed Chinese firms saw declines due to the prospects of renewed trade tensions under a second Trump presidency. Historical context suggests that Trump's aggressive trade policies could once again strain U.S.-China relations, impacting these firms' market performance.
Voter Sentiment and Economic Perception
According to Reuters/Ipsos polls, U.S. voters view Trump as a better candidate for the economy compared to Biden. This perception persists despite the current administration's efforts to highlight a solid economy with slowing inflation and low unemployment. The contrast in economic policies between Trump and Biden remains a focal point for voters and investors alike.
Speculation on Trump's Economic Policies
Investors are speculating on the potential economic policies that Trump might implement if re-elected. These include expansionary economic stimulus, lower income taxes, reduced regulation, and increased tariffs. The anticipation of these policies has fueled market movements and investor strategies.
Conclusion
The assassination attempt on Donald Trump has significantly impacted various sectors of the stock market, highlighting the market's sensitivity to political events. From media and technology to cryptocurrency and prison stocks, the potential for a Trump presidency has driven notable gains. As the U.S. elections approach, market dynamics will continue to evolve, reflecting investor sentiment and economic expectations.
