The Path to $5,000: Why $4,000 Gold Is Just a Step Away
Gold’s rally accelerates as experts predict $4,000 per ounce by year-end, with $5,000 looming on the horizon.

Gold has once again become the centerpiece of global markets, trading near record highs as investors rush for safety amid economic and political turbulence. At the heart of this rally is a striking prediction: $4,000 per ounce is no longer speculation, but inevitability. Aakash Doshi, head of gold strategy at State Street Investment Management, has made it clear that the fourth quarter of 2025 could deliver this milestone, assigning a 75% probability that gold breaks through the psychological ceiling before year-end.
The precious metal, which soared past $3,800 an ounce in late September, has enjoyed strong momentum fueled by a mix of macroeconomic pressures, investor demand, and geopolitical uncertainty. From central bank stockpiling to record ETF inflows, the structural case for gold has rarely looked stronger.
What Is Driving Gold’s Relentless Climb
Unlike past cycles where equities and gold rarely climbed together, 2025 has broken the mold. The S&P 500 is at record highs, yet gold has surged in tandem, showing that its appeal is not limited to times of equity weakness. This dual rally highlights gold’s role not only as a hedge, but as a core asset in diversified portfolios.
Several forces are powering this ascent. A weaker U.S. dollar has created tailwinds, making gold cheaper for international buyers. Central banks, particularly in China, have added aggressively to their reserves. Meanwhile, investors have finally begun to realize how under-owned gold has been. More than $10 billion flowed into U.S.-listed gold ETFs in September alone, the kind of inflows that reinforce upward momentum.
Adding fuel is Washington’s political dysfunction. The U.S. government shutdown, coupled with uncertainty over fiscal spending, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy, has sparked an “uncertainty premium.” Investors are paying for stability, and gold, as it has for millennia, delivers it.
