Russia’s Shadow Forces Europe Toward $1 Trillion Rearmament
Europe’s scramble to rearm collides with U.S. retrenchment and Russia’s looming threat.

Europe stands at a dangerous crossroads. A new report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) warns that the continent may need to spend as much as $1 trillion to plug glaring gaps in defense—just as Washington considers scaling back its troop presence in Europe by nearly a third. The timing could hardly be worse. Russia’s military pressure, combined with the Pentagon’s expected shift of forces to the Asia-Pacific, leaves Europe facing a challenge not just of money, but of capacity, speed, and political resolve.
The IISS describes a Europe ill-prepared for the realities of modern warfare. While allies have pledged billions in fresh defense commitments, the continent’s militaries still suffer from shortages in air defense, long-range missiles, and intelligence systems. Former NATO supreme commander Philip Breedlove has been blunt in his assessment: Europe’s aerial defenses would not withstand the kind of bombardment seen in Ukrainian cities. The report echoes that concern, painting a stark picture of vulnerability across the continent.
Washington’s reassessment of global troop deployments threatens to further unsettle Europe. The Pentagon’s Global Force Posture Review could recommend reducing U.S. forces in Europe by up to 30 percent. For decades, Europe has relied on American military might as the bedrock of NATO’s security. A significant drawdown would force European nations to take on a burden they have long resisted, and do so at a moment when their own defense industries struggle to deliver.
