John Paulson’s Treasure Map: X Marks $5,000 Gold
How John Paulson’s Golden Vision Could Redefine America's Mining Future
Editorial Team (ET)April 30, 2025
Billionaire investor John Paulson, famed for betting against the U.S. housing market before the 2008 crash, is once again making waves—this time in gold. Speaking confidently during a recent interview, Paulson forecasted that bullion prices could soar to near US$5,000 an ounce by 2028, citing a confluence of powerful global forces. With gold already breaching the US$3,500 mark, his call comes at a time when major banks, like Deutsche Bank, are scrambling to adjust their own predictions upward, with Deutsche eyeing US$3,700 an ounce by next year.
Paulson’s prediction isn’t pulled out of thin air. He bases it on accelerating central bank gold purchases, mounting distrust of the U.S. dollar, and heightened global trade tensions. In Paulson’s view, the confiscation of Russia’s foreign reserves following the invasion of Ukraine was a wake-up call for many governments. If it could happen to Russia, it could happen to anyone. Physical gold, unlike paper assets, remained in Russia’s hands—and that lesson wasn’t lost on China and other nations wary of American financial might. As a result, a gold buying frenzy among central banks has ignited, pushing prices higher and strengthening bullion’s appeal as a true safe haven.
Big Bets on American Mining Projects
Beyond merely talking about gold, Paulson is putting his money where his mouth is. He’s already the largest shareholder in Perpetua Resources, an Idaho-based gold and antimony developer that just secured its federal mining permit earlier this year. But he didn’t stop there. Last week, Paulson bought a hefty 40% stake in NovaGold’s Donlin gold project in Alaska, snapping it up from Barrick Gold. It’s a major endorsement of American mining projects at a time when supply security is becoming a matter of national strategy, not just profit.
At Perpetua, gold isn’t the only story. The company's Stibnite project also plays a critical role in providing antimony—a crucial metal for U.S. defense applications such as bullets and military hardware. China’s decision to block antimony exports to America only heightened the urgency. Paulson is backing efforts to establish a fully domestic supply chain. Perpetua is collaborating with Sunshine Silver & Refining, backed by Thomas Kaplan’s Electrum Group, to build an antimony refinery that would cover 40% of America’s demand. In a world increasingly focused on strategic mineral independence, Paulson isn’t just chasing gold; he’s reinforcing America’s industrial backbone.
Why Gold, Not Copper or Lithium?
Unlike many investors who are diversifying into copper, lithium, and other “green economy” minerals, Paulson remains singularly focused on gold. To him, gold is more than just a commodity—it’s a financial lifeboat. While other minerals might serve technological or renewable purposes, gold’s role as a currency alternative and store of value is irreplaceable. In an age where geopolitical uncertainties are multiplying and the very foundation of fiat currency is being questioned, Paulson sees no better hedge than gold.
He’s clear that while other metals might offer opportunities, they belong to a “different world” of investments. His conviction in gold is rooted in its millennia-long track record as a reliable asset during times of upheaval. As paper currencies falter and governments lean harder into inflationary policies, gold shines brighter. For Paulson, it’s not just an investment; it’s a necessity.
Trump’s Influence and the New American Mining Renaissance
Paulson’s alignment with the Trump administration's "America First" policies is no secret. Though he declined to detail private conversations with Donald Trump, Paulson praised the former president’s focus on revitalizing American manufacturing and mining sectors. Trump’s emphasis on domestic production dovetails perfectly with Paulson’s investment thesis: America must mine its own resources, build its own supply chains, and protect its economic sovereignty.
The former president’s support has already borne fruit. Perpetua Resources, for example, received backing during Trump’s term, paving the way for critical federal permits. Now, with the Export-Import Bank evaluating funding options for these strategic projects, it’s clear that the fusion of political will and private capital is forging a new golden age for American mining.
NovaGold’s Donlin and Alaska’s Untapped Treasure
Paulson’s newly acquired stake in the Donlin project signals confidence in one of the world’s largest undeveloped gold deposits. Donlin has already secured federal permits and is projected to operate with costs around US$1,000 an ounce—far below today’s soaring gold prices. With such low costs and such high upside, Donlin stands as a symbol of the new frontier for American mining dominance.
His moves aren’t isolated either. Through partnerships with Electrum and investments in companies like International Tower Hill and Trilogy Metals, Paulson is betting big on Alaska’s mineral-rich landscapes. Alaska, long considered the final frontier, is now being reframed as the frontline for America’s resource independence.
The Perfect Storm Brewing for Gold
Looking at the broader picture, Paulson’s bullishness makes sense. A perfect storm is gathering. Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar, Washington is pushing tariffs and trade barriers, and nations worldwide are preparing for financial battles just as much as military ones. In this environment, trust in paper assets is eroding, and the gravitational pull of gold is strengthening. Paulson’s US$5,000 forecast doesn’t just sound possible—it sounds inevitable.
The confiscation of Russian reserves acted as a flashing neon warning sign for the world’s monetary authorities. China, with its growing tensions with the U.S., has responded by aggressively increasing its gold reserves. Other emerging market economies are following suit. Even Western central banks, traditionally dollar loyalists, are hedging their bets.
As trust frays at the edges of the global financial system, gold steps forward—not as a relic of the past, but as the insurance policy of the future. And John Paulson, with his record of foresight, is once again positioning himself ahead of the curve.
Conclusion
John Paulson’s gold prediction might seem bold to some, but history often rewards those who dare to see what others overlook. As global tensions mount, currencies weaken, and central banks shift their strategies, gold is reasserting its timeless appeal. With major stakes in critical mining projects and a laser-focused investment philosophy, Paulson isn’t just betting on gold’s rise—he’s actively building the infrastructure that will power it. In a world increasingly uncertain, gold’s luster is only beginning to shine brighter.
