Jason Katz Forecasts Year-End Rally as Gold Targets $3,700
UBS’s Jason Katz sees September volatility as a setup for a stronger year-end rally, with gold surging as investors hedge against uncertainty.
Appearing on Fox Business, Jason Katz, managing director and senior portfolio manager at UBS, tackled the question that’s on every investor’s mind: will September once again live up to its reputation as Wall Street’s toughest month? Katz acknowledged the statistics don’t lie. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has averaged losses of around 4.5 percent in September, and across the last decade, about 2 percent. That pattern has become entrenched, feeding investor anxiety and creating what he calls a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The Mechanics Behind the Selloff
Katz explained that it isn’t just superstition at play. Market psychology sets the tone, but structural drivers amplify the decline. Institutions often engage in tax-loss harvesting during September, adding downward pressure. Layer on the fact that the S&P is already up 30 percent this year and the Nasdaq more than 40 percent, and it’s no surprise investors are cautious, trimming risk and locking in profits. For Katz, this is not a reason to panic but a reminder that volatility is part of the natural market cycle.
The Case for a Year-End Rally
Despite the storm clouds of September, Katz told Fox Business he is convinced a year-end rally is in sight. Corporate earnings remain robust, consumer demand is holding firm, and expectations of interest rate cuts could give equities fresh momentum. Historically, the final quarter has been a rebound period as portfolios are rebalanced and optimism builds for the year ahead. Katz sees the same playbook unfolding again, with opportunity awaiting those who ride out the chop.
Gold Shines Amid Uncertainty
One of the clearest signals of investor caution is gold’s surge. On the day Katz spoke, gold hit a record high above $3,500 an ounce. He pointed to several drivers: a weakening dollar, heightened geopolitical risk, tariff uncertainty, and a wave of central bank buying led by China. With two interest rate cuts expected before year-end, the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold only grows. Katz believes $3,700 an ounce is within reach, underscoring the appetite for safe havens when equities wobble.
The Bigger Picture
Katz’s message on Fox Business was one of perspective. Markets move in cycles, and while September may be notorious, it is not insurmountable. Volatility, he argued, is an inevitable part of investing, not a signal to abandon ship. The real test lies in staying the course through the turbulence and positioning for the rally he sees coming into year-end.
Conclusion
Jason Katz struck a balance between caution and optimism in his Fox Business appearance. He did not shy away from acknowledging September’s rocky history, but he urged investors not to let fear dictate decisions. His forecast of a year-end rally is a reminder that after every storm comes a clearing. For those willing to wait out the turbulence, the payoff could arrive before the calendar flips to 2025.