Jason Katz Forecasts Year-End Rally as Gold Targets $3,700

UBS’s Jason Katz sees September volatility as a setup for a stronger year-end rally, with gold surging as investors hedge against uncertainty.

Editorial Team (ET)April 2, 2026

Appearing on Fox Business, Jason Katz, managing director and senior portfolio manager at UBS, tackled the question that’s on every investor’s mind: will September once again live up to its reputation as Wall Street’s toughest month? Katz acknowledged the statistics don’t lie. Over the past five years, the S&P 500 has averaged losses of around 4.5 percent in September, and across the last decade, about 2 percent. That pattern has become entrenched, feeding investor anxiety and creating what he calls a self-fulfilling prophecy.

The Mechanics Behind the Selloff

Katz explained that it isn’t just superstition at play. Market psychology sets the tone, but structural drivers amplify the decline. Institutions often engage in tax-loss harvesting during September, adding downward pressure. Layer on the fact that the S&P is already up 30 percent this year and the Nasdaq more than 40 percent, and it’s no surprise investors are cautious, trimming risk and locking in profits. For Katz, this is not a reason to panic but a reminder that volatility is part of the natural market cycle.

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