IEA Sounds the Alarm on Imminent Copper Shortfall
As the world races toward a low-carbon future, a looming copper shortfall threatens to derail the energy transition and shake the global economy.
Editorial Team (ET)May 29, 2025
The copper crunch is no longer a hypothetical concern—it’s a reality barreling toward the global economy. The International Energy Agency (IEA), widely regarded as the watchdog for global energy trends, has just delivered a sobering forecast: the world is heading for a dramatic shortfall in copper supply within the next decade. By 2035, demand for copper will exceed supply by as much as 30% if current trends continue.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol didn’t mince words. “This will be a major challenge. It’s time to sound the alarm.” And indeed, it is. As the push for a low-carbon economy accelerates, copper—already a fundamental material in every electrical system—will become even more indispensable. Yet the infrastructure needed to support this surge in demand remains vastly underdeveloped.
Why Copper is the Backbone of the Green Transition
Copper isn’t just another metal. It’s the circulatory system of our electrified world. Every solar panel, wind turbine, electric vehicle, and grid infrastructure project relies on it. From the wiring in electric cars to the transmission lines carrying renewable energy to homes and factories, copper is at the core. As nations commit to net-zero targets and green energy transitions, the strain on copper supplies will only intensify.
China’s aggressive expansion of its electricity grids and clean energy manufacturing has already driven demand through the roof. The country’s industrial appetite—paired with its dominance in refining critical minerals—has become a central pressure point in this unfolding supply crisis.
Seventeen Years to Mine, but Just Moments to Demand
Here’s the kicker: the average copper mine takes 17 years from discovery to full-scale production. Let that sink in. Seventeen years. And yet the global energy transition needs this metal now, not two decades from now. According to Birol, the bottleneck isn’t just in mining—it’s in every step of the supply chain, from exploration to processing to refining.
And therein lies the looming disaster. Even if we discover new copper deposits tomorrow, they won’t meaningfully impact supply for over a decade. Meanwhile, demand keeps climbing, driven by the electrification of transport, renewable energy projects, and digital infrastructure.
