CIBC Targets $30 for Barrick Stock, Calling It Undervalued
CIBC’s upgrade fuels fresh highs for Barrick Gold as bullish gold prices and operational gains spark renewed investor confidence.
Barrick Gold Corporation (NYSE: B, TSX: ABX) surged to a fresh 52-week high on Tuesday after CIBC Capital Markets upgraded the Canadian gold giant to “outperform.” The rally followed strong second-quarter results and renewed confidence in the miner’s operational stability. CIBC’s lead mining analyst Anita Soni also raised the price target from US$28 to US$30, signaling room for further upside.
The upgrade comes after a turbulent few years for Barrick, which faced production hurdles in Nevada and operational challenges in Mali. Despite a US$1.04 billion charge tied to the loss of control of its Malian mine, Barrick’s Q2 profits climbed as Gold Prices soared more than 40 percent over the past year.
Gold’s Bullish Backdrop
Gold prices remain the central driver of Barrick’s turnaround. After hitting a record high near US$3,500 per ounce in April, bullion has eased to the US$3,300 range. Yet, CIBC sees prices averaging US$3,600 through the second half of 2025 and into 2026, supported by heightened geopolitical tensions, aggressive central bank buying, and a fragile global economic outlook.
With U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade war policies adding to uncertainty, and the ongoing conflict in Ukraine led by Russian President Vladimir Putin continuing to roil markets, gold has cemented itself as a preferred safe-haven asset. This environment sets the stage for miners like Barrick to thrive, provided they can deliver consistent output.
From Underperformance to Opportunity
Since Soni’s downgrade to “neutral” in November 2024, Barrick has lagged behind peers. While the stock gained 29 percent, in line with gold’s 31 percent rise, competitors rallied between 42 and 95 percent over the same period. This underperformance, coupled with recent operational improvements, has created what CIBC now views as a valuation gap worth seizing.
“Turning the page on the challenging 2022-2024 period, with Q1 and Q2 2025 results, Barrick has delivered against expectations and is on track to achieve production guidance,” Soni wrote. The improved execution has given the bank greater confidence in forward estimates, leading to the bullish rating shift.
Nevada and Pueblo Viejo in Focus
The company’s Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, one of the largest gold-producing complexes in the world, has been a focal point for both optimism and concern. Operational consistency in recent quarters has been critical to regaining investor trust. Similarly, the Pueblo Viejo mine, a joint venture in the Dominican Republic, has stabilized after earlier disruptions, contributing to the stronger-than-expected performance.
Investor Sentiment Turns
Tuesday’s rally underscores how quickly sentiment can swing when both macroeconomic conditions and corporate execution align. For investors, the combination of a strong Gold Price outlook and Barrick’s renewed stability offers a potentially compelling risk-reward profile.
Analysts will now be watching for Barrick to sustain momentum into the second half of the year. If Gold Prices meet or exceed CIBC’s forecasts, and production guidance is met without further geopolitical or operational setbacks, the miner could see its best market performance since the pandemic-era gold rush of 2020.
The Road Ahead
While challenges remain — from managing global operations in politically volatile regions to maintaining cost discipline — Barrick’s recent rebound suggests the company is better positioned to capitalize on the bullish gold cycle. For now, the market seems to agree with CIBC: this is an undervalued gold play with room to shine.
Conclusion
Barrick Gold’s upgrade to “outperform” marks a turning point after years of mixed performance. With gold prices hovering near historic highs, geopolitical tensions fueling safe-haven demand, and operations showing renewed consistency, the Canadian miner is entering a phase where its stock could finally catch up to its peers. The key will be execution, but if recent quarters are any indication, Barrick may be poised for a golden run.