Canadian Oil’s Comeback: Eric Nuttall’s April 2025 Top Picks

Why Eric Nuttall’s Energy Picks Signal a New Chapter for Canadian Oil & Gas Investors

UnknownMay 8, 2025

Eric Nuttall isn’t just another name in the Canadian energy space—he’s one of the most closely watched voices in the industry. As a partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, his words often ripple through oil markets. On April 15, 2025, during a BNN Bloomberg appearance, Nuttall laid out his latest market outlook and revealed three energy stocks he believes are positioned to thrive despite the volatility swirling around global oil markets: Nuvista Energy, ARC Resources, and Athabasca Oil.

These are not just picks—they’re conviction calls grounded in deep analysis of balance sheets, production trajectories, geopolitical influences, and long-term commodity cycles. At a time when investors are grappling with OPEC+ unpredictability, U.S. tariff impacts, and natural gas shocks, Nuttall’s take stands out like a lighthouse in a storm.

Global oil markets have turned into a game of high-stakes poker, where bluffing nations and fast-shifting headlines cause wild swings. Just a few weeks ago, speculative money fled the oil trade, triggering the largest weekly net long liquidation on record. As Nuttall points out, that flush-out may have marked the worst of the storm. Volatility remains, but with investor positioning now reset, the foundation looks more stable—at least for now.

OPEC+ recently made headlines by accelerating its production return. But the real wild card is whether member nations like Iraq and Kazakhstan will comply. If they don’t, we could see another ramp-up, and that uncertainty has dissolved the so-called “OPEC put”—a psychological cushion that once underpinned prices. For investors, this means oil is now trading on razor-edge sentiment, vulnerable to every headline.

At the same time, natural gas prices are holding firm, especially in the U.S., where inventories are below seasonal averages. Growing demand from liquefied natural gas exports, both south and north of the border, has created an undercurrent of strength. The big picture? According to Nuttall, the marginal cost of supply sits around $5 per thousand cubic feet. Futures markets for 2025 and 2026 are still below that level, suggesting constrained production growth and tighter supply fundamentals moving forward.

Canada’s energy sector, often the underdog in global headlines, is looking increasingly resilient. With an average debt-to-cash flow ratio of just 0.9x at US$60 WTI, these companies aren’t just surviving—they’re thriving. Many only need $51 WTI to sustain dividends and hold production flat. That kind of efficiency and balance sheet strength gives Canadian names an edge in today’s risk-off market.

Nuvista Energy: Growth Engine with Massive Shareholder Yield

Let’s talk about Nuvista. This isn’t your average gas play. It’s a liquids-rich Montney producer with a growth plan that’s bold by any standard: 50% production growth over five years. And the shareholder return model? Aggressive. Nuttall says the company can repurchase between 33% and 50% of its shares over that same period at $60–$70 WTI. Even more remarkable, after that growth phase, Nuvista is expected to return $1.43 per share annually for nearly three decades—a potential 13% yield based on today’s prices. Add in recent Montney land transactions implying an $18+ per share valuation, and the upside is hard to ignore.

ARC Resources: Deep Inventory Meets Valuation Upside

Then there's ARC Resources. It’s not just about size—it’s about depth. ARC boasts over two decades of premium drilling inventory, much of it focused on its now-operational Attachie development. According to Nuttall, the company is trading at just 4.8x enterprise value to free cash flow and sports a 9% free cash flow yield, even at $60 WTI. They return roughly 70% of their post-dividend free cash flow to shareholders through buybacks. The long-term thesis? As ARC’s trading multiple compresses and edges closer to its U.S. peers—many of whom trade at 8x or higher—it unlocks capital appreciation on top of robust income.

Athabasca Oil: A Pure Oilsands Play with Fortress Capital Return

Last but certainly not least is Athabasca Oil. This is a midcap oilsands pure play with a fortress balance sheet: $130 million in net cash and zero debt. It’s focused on modest growth, fully funded down to $50 WTI. But here’s what really catches Nuttall’s attention—the company is returning 100% of its remaining free cash flow to shareholders. That means Athabasca could buy back 33% to 60% of its outstanding shares over the next five years depending on the oil price scenario. With over 50 years of stay-flat inventory, Athabasca is built to outlast and outperform, particularly when oil prices rebound.

So why are these names standing out now? Because despite a foggy macro backdrop, they offer clarity. Strong balance sheets. High return of capital. Disciplined growth plans. Long reserve life. This isn’t the high-octane, debt-fueled shale boom of a decade ago. These companies are built differently, operating like lean machines with shareholder rewards baked into their DNA.

And yet, the market hasn’t fully caught on. Valuations remain compressed, trading well below historical and U.S. peer averages. Nuttall believes this disconnect won’t last forever. As energy sentiment recovers and capital rotation begins anew—perhaps driven by inflation, geopolitics, or a flight to hard assets—Canadian oil and gas names could become the safe havens investors flock to.

Looking forward, energy remains a battleground sector. Geopolitical tension, demand headwinds from potential recessionary risks, and evolving environmental policy continue to cloud the runway. But for those who can stomach volatility and look beyond the next headline, Nuttall’s top picks offer rare asymmetric upside.

It’s not just about catching a rebound. It’s about owning companies that can deliver shareholder returns no matter where the commodity cycle goes. With Nuvista’s growth and yield model, ARC’s undervaluation story, and Athabasca’s fortress-like capital return strategy, Eric Nuttall has once again outlined a roadmap not just to survive—but to thrive.

Conclusion

In a world gripped by energy uncertainty, Eric Nuttall’s top picks for April 2025—Nuvista, ARC Resources, and Athabasca—stand out as calculated bets in an unpredictable game. These aren’t just stocks. They’re strategies. They represent a conviction that Canadian oil and gas, though often overlooked, has the foundation, resilience, and potential to outshine even in the stormiest market conditions. Whether oil rebounds sharply or grinds higher gradually, Nuttall’s choices are built for both scenarios. For investors seeking clarity amid chaos, these names may just be the compass they need.

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