Bulls Only Club: Wall Street Strategists Finally Agree on Something
Wall Street strategists unite in rare unanimous optimism, forecasting a fourth straight year of gains for the S&P 500 amid resilient earnings and AI momentum.
As the final trading sessions of 2025 wrap up with the S&P 500 hovering near record highs around 6,930 after a nearly 18% surge this year, something remarkable has happened on Wall Street. For the first time in years, the sell-side crowd has fallen into perfect harmony, and it's all upbeat. A fresh Bloomberg survey of 21 top strategists from major banks and boutique firms reveals not a single bear in the bunch. Every one forecasts gains for the benchmark index in 2026, pointing to an average year-end target of about 7,555, which translates to roughly 9% upside from late-December levels.
This lockstep optimism would deliver a fourth consecutive year of annual advances, the longest such streak since the run-up to the global financial crisis nearly two decades ago. After the S&P 500 has soared some 90% from its October 2022 trough, fueled by resilient growth and massive AI investments, forecasters are betting the momentum carries forward. Corporate earnings are expected to grow double-digits again, broadening beyond the tech giants that drove nearly half the gains this year, while Federal Reserve rate cuts and pro-growth policies provide tailwinds.
Veteran bull Ed Yardeni, who has been riding this wave longer than most, sticks to his call for the index to hit 7,700 by year-end 2026, an 11% jump, citing a "Roaring 2020s" scenario now with 60% odds in his view. Yet even he admits a twinge of unease at the total absence of dissent. "The pessimists have been wrong for so long that people are tired of that schtick," he noted, but the universal cheer feels a bit too cozy for comfort.
The sentiment survived a rollercoaster 2025, where early plunges tied to AI competition fears and trade disruptions nearly tipped the market into bear territory. Strategists slashed targets at the quickest clip since the pandemic, only to reverse course as stocks roared back in one of the fastest recoveries on record. JPMorgan, once the most pessimistic with a dire 12% downside call for 2025, flipped fully bullish, now eyeing 7,500 on solid profits and easing rates. Christopher Harvey at CIBC, one of the few who held steady through the chaos and nailed this year's close, projects 7,450 but warns of overlooked risks like prolonged high rates or fresh tariffs.
Even the relative skeptics aren't sounding alarms. Bank of America's Savita Subramanian offers the tamest upside at 7,100, tempered by elevated valuations, but her wide scenarios, from a 20% drop in recession to 25% gains on earnings beats, highlight the uncertainty without predicting outright losses. The tightest forecast spread in nearly a decade underscores the herd mentality, with highs like Oppenheimer's 8,100 and lows around 7,000 framing a narrow band of expectations.
What ties it all together is a hard-earned lesson from recent years: never bet against U.S. market resilience. The economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter, inflation cooled, and AI capex from hyperscalers is poised to top $500 billion. As Societe Generale's Manish Kabra put it, strong broadening profits and stimulus make the setup solidly favorable. Of course, risks linger, AI turning from boom to bust, Fed missteps, or policy shocks, but for now, Wall Street's crystal balls are unanimously glowing green.