Alberta’s Oilsands Just Became Investable Again

Ottawa’s policy pivot and Alberta’s regulatory win just rewrote the investment story for Canada’s most misunderstood sector.

Editorial Team (ET)December 5, 2025

For the better part of a decade, if you mentioned Canadian heavy oil in a room full of global investors, the reaction was somewhere between eye-rolling and a polite cough. The narrative was brutally simple: Alberta’s oilsands were a giant, sticky stranded asset – too carbon-intensive, too far from tidewater, and politically radioactive. Capital fled, valuations cratered, and the energy weight in the S&P/TSX Composite shrank to embarrassing levels.

Fast-forward to December 2025 and that obituary suddenly looks premature.

National Bank of Canada strategists, led by chief economist Stéfane Marion, just fired a shot across the bow of the ESG crowd: the oilsands are no longer persona non grata in Ottawa, and that policy U-turn could be the rocket fuel the TSX needs after gold’s monster 2025 run finally takes a breather.

The numbers this year have been absurd. The S&P/TSX Composite is already up roughly 30% year-to-date and flirting with its best annual performance since 2009. Gold stocks, riding the yellow metal past $3,000 an ounce, now make up more than 12% of the entire index – a record high more than double the long-term average. For the first time since 2016, Toronto is actually embarrassing the S&P 500 in an up market.

But gold doesn’t grow on trees forever (well, technically it does, but you get the point). So where does the next leg come from?

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