Trump or Harris: Gold’s Rally Unstoppable Regardless of Election Outcome

Gold's Historic Surge in 2024 Set to Continue No Matter Who Wins the U.S. Election

Editorial Team (ET)May 8, 2025

As the U.S. presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump approaches, one thing is clear: the gold rally of 2024 is unlikely to be affected by the outcome. Gold has soared 34% year-to-date, with experts from Sprott Asset Management predicting a continued rise. Despite the political uncertainty, gold is thriving as a safe-haven investment amidst a backdrop of rising U.S. debt and escalating geopolitical tensions.

Gold’s Impressive Surge in 2024

Gold has had an extraordinary year, breaking records with a 34% year-to-date increase. The precious metal's third-quarter return of 13.23% ranks among its top five strongest periods since 1990. Sprott Asset Management notes that the market conditions fueling this surge are complex but significant, driven by multiple factors that extend beyond the U.S. election.

Central Banks and Soaring U.S. Debt Fuel Gold's Rise

One of the major drivers of gold's rally is the unprecedented level of purchasing by central banks. Since the late 1990s, central banks have not bought gold at these levels, reflecting concerns over global economic instability. Additionally, U.S. federal debt hit a record $35.7 trillion by the end of the 2023 fiscal year, further boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge against economic risks. The bond market, once considered a safe-haven, is now losing favor due to inflation and debt, making gold a more attractive option.

Geopolitical Tensions Strengthen Gold’s Appeal

The geopolitical landscape is another critical factor driving gold prices upward. Ongoing conflicts, such as Russia’s war in Ukraine and instability in the Middle East, have only increased gold’s allure as a safe-haven asset. With no clear resolutions in sight, investors are increasingly looking to gold as a stable refuge amid global turmoil.

The Election's Limited Impact on Gold

While U.S. elections often introduce uncertainty to markets, analysts believe that gold’s rally will continue regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins. Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott, states that the current macroeconomic conditions—soaring debt, inflation, and geopolitical instability—are the primary drivers of gold’s performance. Trump’s unpredictable policy trajectory adds uncertainty, but it does not appear to alter the fundamental reasons why gold is rising.

Expert Predictions on Gold’s Future

Analysts have set ambitious price targets for gold. Phil Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures, projects gold could hit $2,850 per ounce by year’s end, while Sprott's Wong anticipates prices between $3,000 and $3,200. These predictions reflect confidence that gold’s bullish phase will persist, driven by macroeconomic forces that far outweigh short-term political outcomes.

Conclusion

As 2024 progresses, gold is cementing its position as a premier safe-haven investment, weathering political, economic, and geopolitical storms. Whether Trump or Harris takes the White House, gold’s rally is expected to endure. For investors looking for stability in uncertain times, gold offers a solid hedge against the risks that show no sign of abating.

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