Trump Media Shares Surge After Poll Shows Tight Race Between Trump and Harris

Trump Media Shares Rebound Following National Poll Showing Tight Race Between Trump and Harris for the White House

Editorial Team (ET)May 9, 2025

In a surprising turn of events, Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), majority-owned by former U.S. President Donald Trump, saw a significant rise in its stock price on Monday. The company’s shares surged nearly 5% after a national poll showed Trump in a tight race with Vice President Kamala Harris for the White House. The sharp uptick in the stock comes after weeks of steady declines, giving the company a much-needed boost just as critical dates approach for insider stock sales.

Background of Trump Media & Technology Group

Founded in 2021, Trump Media & Technology Group was created as a conservative alternative to mainstream media outlets, with its flagship platform, Truth Social, designed to give a voice to those who felt sidelined by big tech. Initially, the company’s stock soared as Trump supporters flocked to Truth Social, betting that Trump’s potential return to the White House would drive the platform’s success.

A Look at Trump Media’s Market Decline

Despite the initial buzz, Trump Media’s stock price has been on a downward trajectory in recent months. Several factors contributed to this decline, including lower-than-expected user growth on Truth Social, regulatory scrutiny, and general market volatility. The stock hit record lows earlier this year, causing concern among investors who had initially seen the company as a sure bet.

The Influence of Political Polls on Stock Prices

In the case of Trump Media, the company’s stock price is directly tied to Trump’s political fortunes. As he campaigns for a second term, any fluctuation in his poll numbers impacts investor confidence. The recent poll by The New York Times and Siena College shows Trump leading Harris by one percentage point at 48% to 47%, a reversal from earlier polls that had given Harris a slight lead. This narrow margin has reinvigorated Trump Media’s stock, as investors anticipate a more competitive race.

Monday’s Stock Surge Explained

The poll results released on Monday triggered a 5% increase in Trump Media’s stock price, pushing it to $17.94. Investors responded positively to the news, with many viewing it as an indication that Trump could maintain his political momentum in the final eight weeks before the election. The stock had suffered a prolonged period of declines, but this recent uptick signals renewed optimism among traders.

Trump Media’s Financial Performance in 2024

Despite the stock surge, Trump Media has faced financial challenges this year. For the June quarter, the company reported a loss of $16.4 million and generated revenue of only $837,000. To put that in perspective, the revenue is roughly equivalent to the sales of just two Starbucks stores, underscoring the gap between the company’s market value and its actual financial performance.

Truth Social’s Role in Trump Media’s Valuation

At the heart of Trump Media’s valuation is the Truth Social platform, which has been both a blessing and a curse for the company. While it initially attracted a significant user base, Truth Social has struggled to keep up with competitors in terms of growth and engagement. However, the platform remains a key part of the company’s future, with potential opportunities in digital advertising and political campaigns as Trump’s bid for the presidency intensifies.

Key Dates for Trump Media Stockholders

Investors are closely watching several key dates this month, as Trump and other insiders will be eligible to sell their shares. According to the company’s stock listing provisions, if the stock price stays at or above $12 for 20 trading days starting on August 22, Trump will be allowed to sell shares starting September 20. If not, he will have to wait until September 26. With the stock price currently above this threshold, insiders may flood the market with additional shares, potentially impacting the stock’s future performance.

Stock Price and Market Value Analysis

Monday’s stock gain lifted Trump Media’s market value to $3.6 billion, with Trump’s 57% stake now valued at over $2 billion. This is a stark contrast to the company’s peak valuation of nearly $10 billion following its stock market listing in March. While the current price reflects a decline from its highs, the recent rebound shows there is still strong investor interest.

PredictIt Betting Platform and Election Contracts

On the PredictIt politics betting platform, contracts for a Trump victory are trading at 52 cents, with a potential $1 payout. Harris is also trading at 52 cents, reflecting the uncertainty of the election outcome. As recently as Saturday, Harris had a slight edge over Trump, trading at 54 cents compared to his 50 cents, but the latest poll has shifted the odds.

Harris’ Momentum Slows in Polls

The recent poll indicates that Harris’ momentum has slowed, giving Trump a narrow lead for the first time in weeks. This shift comes at a crucial time, with only eight weeks left until the election. Voter sentiment appears to be in flux, and both campaigns are preparing for an intense final stretch.

The Intersection of Politics and Business

For Trump, his media venture is not just a business—it's an extension of his political brand. The success of Trump Media & Technology Group is closely intertwined with his political ambitions, and any developments in his campaign are reflected in the company’s stock price. This relationship between politics and business has created a unique dynamic that sets Trump Media apart from other companies in the tech and media space.

Risks and Challenges Ahead for Trump Media

Despite the recent stock rebound, there are significant risks and challenges on the horizon for Trump Media. The possibility of insider stock sales could lead to market volatility, and the company’s financial losses continue to weigh on its long-term prospects. Additionally, Truth Social must find a way to compete in a crowded social media landscape if it hopes to drive future growth.

Investor Sentiment and Market Outlook

The latest poll has provided a short-term boost to Trump Media, but investor sentiment remains cautious. As the election approaches, the company’s stock is likely to experience further volatility. The outcome of the election will play a major role in determining the long-term outlook for Trump Media, with potential opportunities or setbacks depending on the results.

Conclusion

The recent rebound in Trump Media’s stock highlights the close connection between Trump’s political fortunes and his media empire. As the presidential race tightens, the company’s future hangs in the balance. Investors will be watching closely as key dates approach, and the outcome of the election will have significant implications for both Trump Media and the broader political landscape.

Donald Trump

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