Suncor, Imperial, and the "Drill, Baby, Drill!" Effect on Canadian Energy
Canadian Energy Stocks Face Uncertainty as Trump’s Trade Policies Loom

Canada’s largest oil and gas companies are entering earnings season under the shadow of former U.S. President Donald Trump’s potential return to office. As Imperial Oil (TSE: IMO) and Suncor Energy (TSE: SU) prepare to report their fourth-quarter results, market analysts warn that trade tensions could overshadow otherwise strong financial performance.
According to RBC Capital Markets, free cash flow for major oilsands producers—Canadian Natural Resources (TSE: CNQ), Suncor, Cenovus Energy (TSE: CVE), and Imperial—totaled $5.2 billion in Q4, down from $6.6 billion in Q3. Analysts remain optimistic about the sector’s capital discipline but are increasingly wary of Trump’s aggressive stance on trade, which could impact Canadian energy exports.
Market Uncertainty and the Trump Factor
Trump’s rhetoric on imposing tariffs and trade restrictions is causing unease among Canadian producers. While details remain scarce, industry experts believe integrated oil companies—those with refining operations in Canada—are in a stronger position to weather potential trade disruptions.
“Canadian oil and gas equities have underperformed U.S. peers year-to-date due to the uncertainty surrounding potential tariffs,” noted BMO Capital Markets analyst Randy Ollenberger. “Integrated companies like Suncor and Imperial have fared better since they are less reliant on U.S. exports.”
Why Suncor and Imperial Oil Stand Out
Amid the turbulence, Suncor Energy and Imperial Oil are emerging as top picks for investors. Suncor, with its refining and retail operations within Canada, is positioned to mitigate trade risks better than some of its peers. Imperial, majority-owned by ExxonMobil (NYSE: XOM), also benefits from a diversified supply chain and refining infrastructure.
Bouvier of Scotiabank Global Equity Research recommends both companies, emphasizing their resilience in the face of trade uncertainties. “Suncor remains our top pick among integrated oil companies in Canada,” he stated, citing strong operational efficiencies and a robust downstream business.
Oilsands Expansion and the Trans Mountain Pipeline Boost
Despite trade risks, Canadian producers are moving forward with increased production plans for 2025. The expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline is expected to unlock additional export opportunities, providing a tailwind for the sector.
While oil prices dipped in Q4, averaging $70.43 per barrel, analysts anticipate a rebound driven by global demand and supply constraints. RBC Capital Markets reports that Canadian oil companies repurchased $3.1 billion in shares in Q4, signaling confidence in their long-term outlook.
The Outlook for Canadian Energy Stocks
With earnings season underway, investors are closely watching how Canadian oil majors navigate Trump-related risks. While uncertainty lingers, companies with strong domestic refining capacity and diversified operations—like Suncor and Imperial—are seen as best equipped to withstand potential policy changes.
As markets brace for further political developments in the U.S., one thing remains clear: Canada’s energy sector is preparing for an era of heightened volatility, with Suncor and Imperial leading the charge.
