Fogler’s Forecast: Trash, Transport, and Trophy Assets
Why Richard Fogler is betting big on Brookfield, Uber, and Secure Waste as North American markets shift gears.
Editorial Team (ET)May 2, 2025
Richard Fogler, managing director at Kingwest & Company, is no stranger to high-conviction investing. With decades of experience navigating volatile markets, Fogler has earned a reputation for cutting through noise and focusing on fundamentals. His latest top picks reveal a sharp eye for long-term value in a landscape riddled with uncertainty — one shaped by political unpredictability, a yawning gap between U.S. and Canadian economic performance, and shifting investor sentiment.
Fogler’s market outlook is rooted in a broader economic concern: Canada is falling behind. He points to a staggering 20 percent gap in income growth between Canada and the United States since 2015. From 1995 to 2015, the countries moved in lockstep. Now, the divergence is clear — and troubling. While U.S. incomes have surged, Canada’s have stagnated. His tone is blunt. “Did we Canadians become stupid?” he asks, not rhetorically but as a challenge to the country's policymakers. Fogler expects new Prime Minister Mark Carney to prioritize solving this problem, and he remains bullish on Canada in the long run.
Trump’s Trade Whiplash and What Comes Next
On the other side of the border, Fogler’s perspective on the U.S. economy centers around President Donald Trump. The first hundred days of his second term have been erratic, driven by sudden changes to trade policies. But Fogler is cautiously optimistic. If the administration follows through with promised trade deals and tax cuts, it could reignite business confidence and investor optimism. Still, he clarifies that Kingwest’s strategy isn’t built on forecasting political cycles. “We are long-term owners of strong businesses,” Fogler says. “We don’t rely on macro predictions to drive our investments.”
Brookfield Corporation: Deep Value Hidden in Plain Sight
That philosophy is reflected in his current top picks — three companies he believes are positioned for significant growth over the next few years: Brookfield Corporation, Uber Technologies, and Secure Waste Infrastructure. Each one represents a different slice of the North American economy, but all share a common trait: compelling long-term value.
Brookfield Corporation (BN.TSX) is a classic Fogler pick — a misunderstood and underappreciated giant. Trading at a 40 percent discount to its underlying value, Brookfield is quietly building a case for explosive upside. The company, which boasts a market cap of around $110 billion, owns roughly $100 billion in its publicly listed affiliates. Beyond that, it holds $40 billion in managed fund investments, lucrative carried interest from Brookfield Asset Management, and a portfolio of trophy office buildings, retail malls, and a fast-growing insurance division under Brookfield Wealth Solutions. When you add it all up, the numbers are staggering. Fogler believes this stock could double in four years, driven by both valuation catch-up and business growth. In his view, the market is significantly undervaluing Brookfield’s potential.
Uber: The Cash Flow Engine with Miles to Go
Next up is Uber Technologies (UBER.NYSE), a name that’s become synonymous with mobility — but Fogler sees much more under the hood. Uber, he says, is the dominant global player in ride-sharing and delivery, backed by unmatched scale, powerful network effects, and troves of proprietary data. Bookings have grown by 20 percent annually since 2019, reaching nearly $163 billion in 2024. But Fogler is most impressed by Uber’s transformation into a cash-generating machine under CEO Dara Khosrowshahi. The company has expanded into new markets, launched innovative services, and leveraged its platform in ways few competitors can replicate. With only a fraction of total U.S. kilometers driven coming from ridesharing, Fogler sees massive headroom for growth. He expects Uber to deliver 30 percent-plus annual cash flow growth for the next several years — a trajectory that could propel the stock far higher, especially if the market rewards it with a higher earnings multiple.
Secure Waste: The Industrial Sleeper with Breakout Potential
Fogler’s third pick is the dark horse: Secure Waste Infrastructure (SES.TSX). Based in Western Canada, Secure operates 55 waste processing and transfer facilities, 12 landfills, 12 metal recycling plants, and three oil pipeline systems. While historically viewed as an energy services firm, Fogler insists it’s time to reframe the narrative. “Secure is a waste management business — period,” he states. That distinction matters, because reclassification from energy analysts to industrial analysts could drive a major re-rating of the stock. Fogler likes the company’s entrepreneurial spirit, backed by a co-founder still active as chairman with a $30 million personal stake. He points to several tailwinds: strong pricing power, consistent five percent annual increases, and a promising acquisition pipeline in metals recycling. The company expects to deploy $100 million in M&A activity in 2025 and has already launched a share buyback targeting six percent of its outstanding stock. According to Fogler, the stock is trading at just 10 times free cash flow — a deep discount given the company’s growth prospects.
Long-Term Thinking in a Short-Term World
Taken together, these picks offer a window into Fogler’s investment mindset. He’s not chasing trends or playing quarterly earnings roulette. He’s looking for solid businesses with real assets, strong leadership, and a path to sustainable growth. Whether it’s a global infrastructure giant, a tech-powered mobility platform, or a gritty waste services company, the through-line is clear: value, growth, and resilience.
As for the broader market, Fogler remains level-headed. He acknowledges the swirl of headlines, political noise, and short-term uncertainty, but he’s not swayed by it. His confidence lies not in predicting the next economic pivot or political shift, but in the power of durable businesses to outperform over time. In an era of noise, that clarity is a breath of fresh air.
Conclusion
Richard Fogler’s top picks for May 1, 2025, reflect a disciplined approach to investing amid a noisy and polarized market. Brookfield offers deep value and hidden assets, Uber is leveraging global scale into massive cash flows, and Secure Waste is quietly transitioning into a cash-rich industrial player. With political winds shifting in both Canada and the U.S., Fogler’s long-term conviction in resilient, underappreciated businesses stands out. He’s not betting on headlines — he’s betting on fundamentals. And right now, those fundamentals are screaming opportunity.
