Chill Picks, Hot Returns: What Brian Madden’s Watching

Brian Madden’s market moves reveal why strategy, structure, and staying power still dominate North American investing in 2025.

Editorial Team (ET)May 28, 2025

Brian Madden, chief investment officer at First Avenue Investment Counsel, isn’t easily shaken by market noise. As economic growth forecasts are revised downward and the earnings outlook dims slightly, he remains clear-eyed and deliberate. His focus is razor-sharp: quality North American equities that demonstrate long-term resilience, fundamental strength, and compelling narratives. Despite macroeconomic headwinds and the specter of geopolitical and trade policy turbulence, Madden has not retreated. He has recalibrated, not panicked. And his latest top picks—Constellation Software, Lennox, and the Bank of Montreal—are a masterclass in strategic investing.

The broader market context is anything but simple. In the United States, GDP growth has been revised down to 1.4 percent for the year, slipping from the earlier projection of 2.1 percent. Canada has followed a similar trajectory, with forecasts falling to 1.2 percent from 1.8 percent. At the same time, analysts’ earnings growth projections have been trimmed to a range of six to seven percent, down sharply from the bullish 12 to 13 percent estimates floated just a few months ago. This retreat in expectations mirrors a more cautious outlook from economists and investors alike. But it hasn’t derailed the performance of major equity indices, which have rebounded sharply from mid-February and early April lows—driven by growing hopes for trade stabilization and potential tax cut extensions in the U.S.

Staying the Course: The Power of Dual Mandates

Madden’s disciplined dual-mandate strategy—one rooted in dividend-growing stalwarts and the other in momentum-driven leaders—has proven particularly adept in this environment. While many managers find themselves scrambling in response to volatile conditions, he’s sticking with companies that don’t just survive market shifts—they capitalize on them. In his Dividend Growers portfolio, he favors firms with robust balance sheets, durable competitive advantages, and the ability to hike payouts year after year. On the Momentum side, he’s zeroing in on firms that dominate fast-growing, structurally advantaged sectors and deliver outsized gains backed by strong price action.

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