Analysts Shift Gears: Suncor and Imperial Oil Upgraded, CNQ Downgraded

Canadian Oil Stocks See Shake-Up as Analysts Revise Ratings Amid Tariff Risks

Editorial Team (ET)June 18, 2025

In a surprising shift, TPH & Co. has downgraded Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ.TO) from “buy” to “hold” while boosting both Suncor Energy (SU.TO) and Imperial Oil (IMO.TO) to “buy.” This adjustment reflects growing concerns about valuation for CNQ and a more bullish outlook on Suncor and Imperial amid looming U.S. tariff risks on Canadian crude.

Analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon, who spearheaded the revisions, maintained his $50 per share price target on CNQ. While acknowledging the company’s world-class asset quality and execution, he believes the stock’s valuation has become stretched, making better opportunities available elsewhere. Though CNQ has consistently delivered strong financial results, Lambujon views the recent market weakness as temporary rather than a deeper structural issue. That said, he believes Suncor and Imperial present a more compelling rate of change in their valuation.

Suncor’s Ascent Under CEO Rich Kruger

Suncor has been on an upward trajectory, benefiting from strong financials and renewed confidence under CEO Rich Kruger. Since taking over in 2023, Kruger has aggressively cut costs, improved safety standards, and reduced downtime, leading to significant improvements in operations. This disciplined approach has solidified Suncor’s standing as the best-positioned Canadian oil company to weather a potential trade war with the United States.

Lambujon sees these developments as a game-changer, stating that Suncor has transformed from a scrappy underdog into a dominant market force. The firm has now raised its price target for Suncor to $66 per share, reflecting growing optimism around the company’s ability to navigate industry headwinds while continuing to improve efficiency.

Imperial Oil Gains Favor Amid Tariff Risks

Imperial Oil has also seen a sentiment shift, with TPH & Co. upgrading the stock to “buy” and setting a new price target of $115 per share. The firm pointed to Imperial’s long history of strong operational execution and its resilience against external risks as key reasons for the improved outlook. Lambujon emphasized that Imperial’s substantial issuer bid potential and robust refining and fuel marketing business in Canada make it a safer bet, particularly in an uncertain trade environment.

As the energy sector braces for potential tariffs from the U.S., Imperial’s ability to operate independently within Canada gives it a strategic edge. With a well-established track record of performance, the company is increasingly viewed as one of the sector’s most reliable players.

Market Response and Outlook

Following the analyst upgrades, Suncor shares saw an immediate jump, climbing as much as 2.5%. Meanwhile, shares of Canadian Natural Resources and Imperial Oil registered smaller gains of less than one percent during mid-day trading.

This latest re-evaluation underscores a shifting dynamic in the Canadian oil and gas sector. While Canadian Natural Resources remains a high-quality player, concerns over valuation have left it on the sidelines for now. In contrast, Suncor and Imperial are emerging as top picks for investors looking to navigate the complex energy landscape. With strong fundamentals and a clearer path forward, both companies are poised to benefit from changing market conditions in the months ahead.

Disclaimer

This report should not be viewed as investment advice or as an offer to buy or sell any securities or as an invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither the author of this report, its publisher, nor any other person associated with the publication of this report, are registered brokers, investment dealers, investment advisers, or financial advisers. The information in this report has not been tailored to the particular needs or circumstances of readers and should not be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations to purchase or sell any of the securities presented in this report. Readers seeking investment advice should contact qualified and registered brokers, investment dealers, investment advisers, or financial advisers prior to making any decision to buy or sell any of the securities referred to in this report. The information in this report should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice. No recommendation is made as to whether an investment in the presented securities is suitable for any reader in light of the reader’s particular circumstances.

Readers are cautioned that the publisher of this report covers exclusively securities that carry a high degree of volatility. Investing in such securities is highly speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Investors in such securities could lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. Only those investors who can afford to lose all or a substantial portion of their investment should consider investing in the securities referred to in this report.

This report may include information obtained from publicly available sources, including third-party reports or analysis. Neither the author nor publisher of this report, nor www.juniorstocks.com or its owners, have undertaken any independent investigation into the factual information used in this report, and the information in this report is provided without any warranty of any kind. No representations or warranties are provided regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this report. Statements of opinion or belief are those of the authors and/or publisher of this report. These statements of opinion or belief are expressions of the author’s and/or publisher’s judgment, and there is no guarantee that those judgments will turn out to be correct. No inference should be drawn that the author and/or publisher have any special or greater knowledge about the presented companies or their securities, or any particular expertise in the industries or markets in which the company operates. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and seek professional advice prior to investing in any securities presented on Juniorstocks.com.

Certain statements in this report constitute “forward-looking” statements. Forward-looking statements often, but not always, are identified by the use of words such as “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “plan,” “estimate,” “expect,” “targeting,” and “intend” and statements that an event or result “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions, or future events or performance; they are not statements of historical facts and should not be viewed as any guarantee of any future result. Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, estimates, and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. The author and/or publisher of this report disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements in this report, whether as a result of new information, future events, or results or otherwise. There is no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

The information provided in this report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation, or would subject the author or publisher of this report to any registration requirement in such jurisdiction or country.

Information about the editor of this publication:
Juniorstocks.com is a service provided by Piccadilly Capital Group, Office 66, 101 Clapham High Street, London, SW4 7TB, UK. Piccadilly Capital Group is not the publisher of this report and was not paid for the publication of this report. Piccadilly Capital Group seeks to generate web traffic and a growing number of followers through the publication of articles or reports. Directors, officers, and other insiders of the publisher own an interest in Piccadilly Capital Group. Piccadilly Capital Group does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services, or securities of any company mentioned on www.juniorstocks.com. Piccadilly Capital Group will not share your information with any outside third parties. Due to the new data protection basic regulation, we ask you to read our data protection declaration carefully.

Note on copyright:
The contents published on this website and on connected media (e.g., e-mail, X, Facebook) are subject to applicable copyright and ancillary copyright laws. Any use not permitted by applicable copyright and ancillary copyright laws requires the prior written consent of the provider or the respective rights holder. In particular, this applies to the duplication, editing, translation, storage, processing, or reproduction of content in databases or other electronic media and systems. Contents and rights of third parties are marked as such. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of individual contents or complete pages is not permitted and is punishable by law. Only the production of copies and downloads for personal, private, and non-commercial use is permitted. Links to the provider's website are always welcome and do not require the consent of the provider of the website. Photos and images on the website may not be shared unless the publisher itself has acquired the initial rights from authorized sources. The presentation of this website in external frames is only allowed with written permission. If you notice any violations, please inform us. Please note: The content of our articles, emails, or other publications or social networks such as X, LinkedIn or Facebook is exclusively intended for the designated addressee(s). If you are not the addressee of these articles, emails, or other publications in the market letter or social networks such as Twitter or Facebook or his or her legal representative, please note that any form of publication, reproduction, or distribution of the content of these articles, emails, or other publications in the market letter or social networks such as X, LinkedIn or Facebook is prohibited. Falsifications of the original content of this message during data transmission cannot be excluded in principle.