Alexander MacDonald’s Top Stock Picks to Watch in November 2024
Alexander MacDonald’s Top Picks for North American Large Caps: Strategic Investments for Stability and Growth
In a year marked by economic uncertainty and volatility, one trend stands out: the stark performance divide between U.S. equities and the rest of the world. While international markets have faced challenges, the U.S. has experienced significant growth, with the S&P 500 Index rallying by an impressive 25% year-to-date. The MSCI All-Country World ex-USA Index, in contrast, has lagged, down 8% from the end of September and up just 4% year-to-date.
In this climate, Alexander MacDonald, portfolio manager at GlobeInvest Capital Management, offers his market insights and recommends three stocks that stand out as solid investments: Otis Worldwide, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Canadian National Railway. MacDonald’s focus on North American large caps reflects his confidence in the stability and growth prospects of these companies.
Market Overview: U.S. Growth and Emerging Concerns
Despite global headwinds, U.S. companies have posted strong earnings, with over half of S&P 500 companies beating revenue expectations and 75% surpassing earnings forecasts for the third quarter. However, concerns loom over U.S. consumer strength and high market valuations, prompting investors to consider a balanced approach to risk. MacDonald’s picks are well-positioned for growth and resilience, offering unique advantages in the current environment.
Top Picks for November 2024
Otis Worldwide (OTIS NYSE)
Otis Worldwide is a global leader in elevator and escalator manufacturing and services, holding a 20% share of the installed elevator base worldwide. This market dominance is significant because service work on installed elevators drives profitability, with margins three times higher than those on new installations. Currently, service contracts contribute to 80% of Otis’s consolidated profits, creating a stable revenue stream.
While new installations in China have slowed, affecting Otis’s growth in that region, other markets have remained strong. According to MacDonald, Otis’s current valuation, trading at 24 times forward price-to-earnings (P/E), offers a favorable entry point. With a broad global footprint and a stable revenue model, Otis represents a reliable choice for investors seeking resilience in volatile times.
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS TSX)
The Bank of Nova Scotia, or Scotiabank, has lagged behind other major Canadian banks, making it one of the more attractively valued options in the sector. It currently trades at one of the lowest P/E and price-to-book (P/B) ratios in its group, as well as the largest discount relative to its historical P/B multiple.
MacDonald highlights Scotiabank’s strategic pivot from Latin America to North America, which he views as a long-term advantage. This shift reduces the bank’s exposure to more volatile emerging markets and focuses its growth strategy on North American markets, which are seen as more stable. Furthermore, Scotiabank stands out as the only major Canadian bank with net interest income that would benefit from further rate cuts, adding to its short-term appeal.
Canadian National Railway (CNR TSX)
Canadian National Railway has faced a challenging year, dealing with labor strikes and the impact of wildfires on its infrastructure. Despite these obstacles, the company has managed to rebound, and its operations are back to normal. Although recent guidance cuts have dampened investor sentiment, MacDonald believes the company’s fundamentals remain strong.
Currently trading at historically low P/E multiples compared to both its own historical valuation and its peers, Canadian National Railway offers a compelling opportunity for value-oriented investors. MacDonald expects that the company’s efficient operations and extensive network will enable it to capitalize on growth opportunities over the medium term.
Why MacDonald’s Picks Offer Stability and Growth
Otis Worldwide’s revenue model, based on high-margin service contracts, provides a steady cash flow that can help weather economic downturns. With its dominant market share and global reach, Otis has the competitive advantage needed to maintain profitability in uncertain times.
Scotiabank’s strategic shift toward North America positions it for long-term stability. Its valuation, currently among the lowest in its peer group, reflects its potential as an undervalued asset. As rate cuts could boost Scotiabank’s net interest income, MacDonald sees potential for significant upside in this stock.
Canadian National Railway’s ability to recover from operational setbacks, coupled with a discounted valuation, makes it a strong contender in the transportation sector. Its extensive network and streamlined operations will be crucial assets as demand for rail transport grows over time.
Conclusion: Balancing Stability with Opportunity
In a year marked by volatility, MacDonald’s top picks—Otis Worldwide, Bank of Nova Scotia, and Canadian National Railway—offer a balanced approach to North American equities. Each company has unique strengths that align with current market conditions, providing stability and growth potential in an unpredictable environment. Investors looking for quality, resilient stocks in large-cap North American companies will find MacDonald’s picks particularly compelling.

