A Double Shot of Trouble? The 4 Big Risks Brewing for Starbucks

Is Starbucks’ Hot Streak About to Cool Down? Analysts Sound the Alarm

Editorial Team (ET)May 7, 2025

Starbucks (SBUX) has been on a tear, gaining 15% in the past month as investors rally behind new CEO Brian Niccol’s potential turnaround strategy. But not everyone is convinced the coffee giant’s rally is sustainable. Jefferies analyst Andy Barish is among those urging caution, citing four major risks that could derail Starbucks' stock in the months ahead.

1. Same-Store Sales Recovery Faces Uncertainty

One of the biggest concerns is Starbucks’ ability to reignite same-store sales growth. The company reported a 4% decline in global same-store sales last quarter, with North America and U.S. sales also slipping by 4%. China, a crucial international market, saw an even steeper drop of 6%.

Analysts worry that the Street's estimates for second-quarter same-store sales are too optimistic. If Starbucks fails to deliver a meaningful turnaround, investors could quickly turn bearish on the stock.

2. Margin Expansion Could Prove Challenging

Expanding profit margins will not be easy. Starbucks has made significant commitments to increasing worker wages and improving store hours—moves that may weigh on profitability. Meanwhile, inflationary pressures and higher input costs continue to be a headwind.

While Niccol’s strategy focuses on streamlining operations and cutting inefficiencies, there’s no guarantee these efforts will translate into higher margins anytime soon.

3. A Possible Walk-Back on Cost-Saving Goals

Under previous management, Starbucks announced a bold $1 billion cost-savings initiative. However, analysts worry that the company might step back from this target as it prioritizes investments in marketing, store renovations, and digital expansion.

Already, the company has pulled back on aggressive discounting, a move that may have contributed to the recent drop in sales. If Starbucks cannot balance cost-cutting with growth investments, financial performance could stagnate.

4. Earnings Growth May Take Longer Than Expected

Earnings per share (EPS) recovery is another lingering question. While long-term investors are betting on a multi-year turnaround, much of that optimism is already priced into Starbucks’ stock. If the company's earnings recovery lags behind expectations in fiscal 2026 and 2027, shares could see downside pressure.

Adding to the uncertainty, Starbucks has yet to provide concrete sales and earnings guidance for the current fiscal year. Niccol withdrew guidance in October, citing the need for flexibility in investing in store experience, marketing, and staff training.

The Road Ahead for Starbucks Investors

Despite these risks, some investors remain bullish on Starbucks for the long haul. The company is making strategic moves to streamline operations, including eliminating 1,100 corporate roles and cutting 13 menu items to improve checkout times.

However, short-term headwinds remain a concern. As Barish puts it, “The upside is already greatly embedded in valuation at current levels.” Investors betting on further gains may want to tread carefully as the company navigates these challenges in the months ahead.

Disclaimer

This report should not be viewed as investment advice or as an offer to buy or sell any securities or as an invitation or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any securities. Neither the author of this report, its publisher, nor any other person associated with the publication of this report, are registered brokers, investment dealers, investment advisers, or financial advisers. The information in this report has not been tailored to the particular needs or circumstances of readers and should not be relied upon as investment advice or recommendations to purchase or sell any of the securities presented in this report. Readers seeking investment advice should contact qualified and registered brokers, investment dealers, investment advisers, or financial advisers prior to making any decision to buy or sell any of the securities referred to in this report. The information in this report should not be construed as investment, legal, or tax advice. No recommendation is made as to whether an investment in the presented securities is suitable for any reader in light of the reader’s particular circumstances.

Readers are cautioned that the publisher of this report covers exclusively securities that carry a high degree of volatility. Investing in such securities is highly speculative and carries a high degree of risk. Investors in such securities could lose all or a substantial portion of their investment. Only those investors who can afford to lose all or a substantial portion of their investment should consider investing in the securities referred to in this report.

This report may include information obtained from publicly available sources, including third-party reports or analysis. Neither the author nor publisher of this report, nor www.juniorstocks.com or its owners, have undertaken any independent investigation into the factual information used in this report, and the information in this report is provided without any warranty of any kind. No representations or warranties are provided regarding the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this report. Statements of opinion or belief are those of the authors and/or publisher of this report. These statements of opinion or belief are expressions of the author’s and/or publisher’s judgment, and there is no guarantee that those judgments will turn out to be correct. No inference should be drawn that the author and/or publisher have any special or greater knowledge about the presented companies or their securities, or any particular expertise in the industries or markets in which the company operates. Readers should conduct their own due diligence and seek professional advice prior to investing in any securities presented on Juniorstocks.com.

Certain statements in this report constitute “forward-looking” statements. Forward-looking statements often, but not always, are identified by the use of words such as “seek,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “plan,” “estimate,” “expect,” “targeting,” and “intend” and statements that an event or result “may,” “will,” “should,” “could,” or “might” occur or be achieved and other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements express or involve discussions with respect to predictions, expectations, beliefs, plans, projections, objectives, goals, assumptions, or future events or performance; they are not statements of historical facts and should not be viewed as any guarantee of any future result. Forward-looking statements are based on expectations, estimates, and projections at the time the statements are made that involve a number of risks and uncertainties which could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those presently anticipated. The author and/or publisher of this report disclaims any obligation to update the forward-looking statements in this report, whether as a result of new information, future events, or results or otherwise. There is no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements.

The information provided in this report is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation, or would subject the author or publisher of this report to any registration requirement in such jurisdiction or country.

Information about the editor of this publication:
Juniorstocks.com is a service provided by Piccadilly Capital Group, Office 66, 101 Clapham High Street, London, SW4 7TB, UK. Piccadilly Capital Group is not the publisher of this report and was not paid for the publication of this report. Piccadilly Capital Group seeks to generate web traffic and a growing number of followers through the publication of articles or reports. Directors, officers, and other insiders of the publisher own an interest in Piccadilly Capital Group. Piccadilly Capital Group does not endorse or recommend the business, products, services, or securities of any company mentioned on www.juniorstocks.com. Piccadilly Capital Group will not share your information with any outside third parties. Due to the new data protection basic regulation, we ask you to read our data protection declaration carefully.

Note on copyright:
The contents published on this website and on connected media (e.g., e-mail, X, Facebook) are subject to applicable copyright and ancillary copyright laws. Any use not permitted by applicable copyright and ancillary copyright laws requires the prior written consent of the provider or the respective rights holder. In particular, this applies to the duplication, editing, translation, storage, processing, or reproduction of content in databases or other electronic media and systems. Contents and rights of third parties are marked as such. Unauthorized reproduction or transmission of individual contents or complete pages is not permitted and is punishable by law. Only the production of copies and downloads for personal, private, and non-commercial use is permitted. Links to the provider's website are always welcome and do not require the consent of the provider of the website. Photos and images on the website may not be shared unless the publisher itself has acquired the initial rights from authorized sources. The presentation of this website in external frames is only allowed with written permission. If you notice any violations, please inform us. Please note: The content of our articles, emails, or other publications or social networks such as X, LinkedIn or Facebook is exclusively intended for the designated addressee(s). If you are not the addressee of these articles, emails, or other publications in the market letter or social networks such as Twitter or Facebook or his or her legal representative, please note that any form of publication, reproduction, or distribution of the content of these articles, emails, or other publications in the market letter or social networks such as X, LinkedIn or Facebook is prohibited. Falsifications of the original content of this message during data transmission cannot be excluded in principle.